A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
